EURCHF Monthly TF Analysis 💡🧠

The EUR/CHF pair on the monthly timeframe indicates a bearish outlook with visible market structure shifts (MSS) and breaks of market structure (BMS), signaling strong selling pressure over the long term. The chart also highlights areas of interest such as an inversion Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a key resistance level that aligns with this structure.

Key Observations

1. Market Structure:
   • MSS (Market Structure Shift): A shift occurred previously, transitioning from bullish to bearish sentiment.
   • BMS (Break of Market Structure): Confirmed breaks of structure indicate bearish dominance, with price creating lower highs and lower lows.
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG):
   • There’s an inversion FVG (highlighted in the chart) where price may revisit as part of a retracement. This zone provides a confluence for potential bearish entries.
3. Liquidity and SSS:
   • The short-term swing (SSS) creates liquidity above the current price. Price might seek to fill this gap before resuming the bearish trend.
4. Psychological Resistance:
   • A strong horizontal resistance aligns with the FVG zone, acting as a significant bearish reversal area.

Trade Setup Idea

• Entry: Wait for price to retrace into the inversion FVG near the resistance zone (0.9450 – 0.9500).
• Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick rejections (e.g., bearish engulfing or wicks rejecting the zone) on a lower timeframe for additional confirmation.
• Target: The bearish continuation move could aim for the next swing low near 0.9050 – 0.9000.
• Stop Loss: Above the resistance zone at 0.9550.

Conclusion

The overall sentiment on the EUR/CHF Monthly Timeframe remains bearish. The retracement into the inversion FVG provides a high-probability sell opportunity, targeting a continuation of the bearish trend. Proper risk management and confirmation from lower timeframes are essential for executing this trade.